Telangana has 17% rain deficit but fares better than others

Telangana recorded a 17% rainfall deficit as of August 21, but its monsoon performance was better than several major foodgrain-producing states, according to SBI Research. Neighbouring Andhra Pradesh reported a 39% deficit, Bihar 41%, Punjab 32%, Karnataka 22% and Rajasthan 20%. Telangana's deficit remained within the India Meteorological Department's normal rainfall category, which covers departures of up to 19% below normal.

At the national level, rainfall was 13% below normal, with 351 of 741 districts recording deficient or largely deficient rainfall. Maharashtra recorded a 7% deficit, Madhya Pradesh 10% and Gujarat 3%. West Bengal reported a 5% surplus while Odisha received 2% excess rainfall. SBI Research also flagged a weakening monsoon outlook, citing Skymet's revised forecast lowering expected seasonal rainfall to 85% of the Long Period Average from an earlier estimate of 94%, and putting the probability of drought at 70%.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology assessed El Nino conditions as firmly established. SBI Research said El Nino may have limited impact on kharif production as sowing progress has been satisfactory, but could pose a risk to rabi crops. Rainfall in the remaining weeks of the monsoon will be crucial for water availability and the upcoming rabi season.