El Nino to deepen India’s rain deficit, 70 per cent drought chance

India's rainfall deficit is expected to widen through September as El Nino strengthens, with private forecaster Skymet downgrading its monsoon forecast to 85 per cent of the long-period average and predicting a 70 per cent chance of drought. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) says the current wet spell may fade by end-August, and withdrawal could begin from North-West India around mid-September. The all-India monsoon deficit stood at 13 per cent as of August 16, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data.

The Hindu Business Line reports that east and north-east India are the worst hit with a 27 per cent deficit, followed by the south peninsula at 21 per cent. More than 45 per cent of tehsils are rain deficient. Hindustan Times notes that Skymet's revised forecast is a sharp drop from its April estimate of 94 per cent of the LPA, with managing director Jatin Singh saying the El Nino is strengthening. IMD, which had forecast 90 per cent of LPA in June, will issue another update by end-August.

Despite the rain shortfall, kharif sowing deficit has narrowed to less than 1 per cent, with total sowing crossing 1,000 lakh hectares. Livemint reports that the cumulative deficit masks severe regional imbalances: 58 per cent of states have normal rainfall, while 35 per cent face deficit. The Bay of Bengal may produce at least one more low-pressure system before August ends, offering some relief.