China’s Industrial Surplus Puts Global Manufacturers Under Pressure

The Story in Brief

China’s newer export surge is being driven by state-backed strength in electric vehicles, batteries, solar equipment, semiconductors, robotics, artificial intelligence and pharmaceuticals, Frontline reports. The country accounted for roughly a third of global manufacturing value-added and recorded a $1.197 trillion trade surplus in 2025, including nearly $2 trillion in manufactured goods. Weak domestic demand, a property downturn and demographic pressures are pushing China to export more.

The International Monetary Fund estimates China’s industrial policy costs about 4.4 per cent of GDP annually through four channels, with total support potentially reaching 7 to 8 per cent. Excess capacity is producing losses at home and putting manufacturers in other countries under pressure. By late 2025, all eight major Chinese solar panel and wafer makers were loss-making, while just three of about 60 domestic electric vehicle brands were profitable.