
Corn futures jumped as much as 4.6% in Chicago, the biggest single-day gain since June, after the US Department of Agriculture cut its corn yield forecast to 180.7 bushels per acre, down…
Corn futures jumped as much as 4.6% in Chicago, the biggest single-day gain since June, after the US Department of Agriculture cut its corn yield forecast to 180.7 bushels per acre, down from 183 last month and sharply below last year’s record of 186.5. The reduction, blamed on heat waves across the Northern Hemisphere, exceeded market expectations. The USDA also lowered its wheat export outlook for Russia and Ukraine following an attack on a key Russian grain port. Despite the yield cut, total US corn production is estimated to rise slightly to 16.013 billion bushels, the second-largest harvest ever. The agency also raised its acreage forecast for corn.
Narratives of a global food crisis are resurfacing, but the data is more nuanced. The USDA's cut in corn yield is real, yet total US production will still be the second-largest ever, with record yields in top grower Iowa. The stories about a looming wheat crunch from the Black Sea attacks ignore that Russian and Ukrainian exports were already trimmed only modestly in the forecast. Watch for demand data next: if China and others keep buying, the price spike will hold. If they don't, this rally will fade fast.
Source: livemint.com
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