Now Reading: El Nino threatens rice, sugar, coffee; India holds strong buffers
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El Nino threatens rice, sugar, coffee; India holds strong buffers
El Nino threatens rice, sugar, coffee; India holds strong buffers
El Nino’s onset last month threatens farm commodities from rice to cocoa and palm oil, but the impact varies by crop, analysts told The Hindu BusinessLine. Rice faces the clearest risk due…
The Story in Brief
El Nino’s onset last month threatens farm commodities from rice to cocoa and palm oil, but the impact varies by crop, analysts told The Hindu BusinessLine. Rice faces the clearest risk due to thin global surplus and high dependence on Asia. However, India’s rebuilt buffer stocks, rising from 30.1% of consumption in 2023-24 to an estimated 42.2% by 2026-27, make another round of pre-emptive export restrictions unlikely.
Rabobank said cocoa, palm oil, sugar, robusta coffee and Australian grains face renewed weather-related pressure. By contrast, corn has the least direct El Nino exposure because large producers like the US and Brazil are in low-sensitivity zones. The FAO's AMIS warned that weather over the coming weeks will determine final yields, especially for northern hemisphere maize crops in critical growth stages.
The Indian Opinion
Headlines paint El Nino as a uniform disaster for all crops, but analysts clearly say the threat is varied. Corn and wheat face limited direct risk, while India’s massive grain stocks blunt the rice threat. The real worry is for cocoa, palm oil, sugar and robusta coffee, where supply chains are fragile. Watching Australia’s wheat yields and soil moisture in North America over the next two months will settle whether this El Nino is a headline scare or a real shortage.
Source: thehindubusinessline.com
This story was synthesised by AI from the source linked above.
