FCNR(B) inflows may hit $85 bn despite RBI deadline cut

SBI Research expects FCNR(B) deposits to reach $65-70 billion by the scheme's end, and total mobilisation including OFCBs and ECBs could hit $80-85 billion. The first $20 billion took 38 days to mobilise, the next $20 billion just 14 days. Between August 1 and 13, $16 billion was raised, taking cumulative inflows to $56.8 billion as of August 13. The RBI has already recouped $31.2 billion in foreign currency assets, about 55% of total mobilisation, Businesstoday.in reports.

The RBI shortened the swap-facility deadline for FCNR(B) deposits to August 31 from September 30, and the swap window will close on September 11 instead of October 16. SBI Research called the move prudent, saying the target corpus can still be achieved. The Economic Times reports that bankers were caught off guard, as RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra had said a week earlier that no premature closure was under consideration. Banks now plan to raise short-term bridge loans at possibly higher costs to meet commitments to clients, creating temporary liquidity mismatches.

SBI Research estimates the conversion of deposit proceeds could inject about Rs 8-9 lakh crore into the banking system, boosting liquidity and potentially lowering money-market and short-bond spreads. The rupee, however, has remained under pressure near Rs 95-95.5 despite record inflows. Bankers say mid-sized and small banks may have to cut FCNR(B) targets, and some debut bond sales overseas may be shelved.