Secret oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz keep prices in check

Bloomberg reports that Middle Eastern oil producers have been secretly shipping fossil fuels through the Strait of Hormuz for months, with vessels turning off their transponders to avoid detection. The covert trade, involving the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, is running at full tilt despite attacks on ships. Traders estimate the volume at over 4 million barrels a day, helping keep Brent crude between $80 and $90 a barrel, far below the $150 some feared when the Iran war began.

However, Times Now News says traffic through the strait nearly halted over the weekend: Kpler data showed only five commodity vessels crossed on Saturday and none on Sunday, versus 31 the previous weekend. Brent crude held near $89 a barrel on Monday. A US-Iran ceasefire memorandum due to expire has not been extended, with Iran saying it has not decided whether to resume talks. Bloomberg sources see little sign of a slowdown, but seafarers have died and oil spills have appeared in the Gulf of Oman.