Now Reading: Indian farm risks extend beyond El Niño as sowing recovers
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Indian farm risks extend beyond El Niño as sowing recovers
Kharif sowing in India was 2.9% below last year as of 31 July, a sharp recovery from the 20% shortfall recorded in early July. June rainfall was 40% below the long-term average,…
The Story in Brief
Kharif sowing in India was 2.9% below last year as of 31 July, a sharp recovery from the 20% shortfall recorded in early July. June rainfall was 40% below the long-term average, while the India Meteorological Department forecasts the monsoon at 10% below average. Regional differences remain wide, with sowing down 28% in Karnataka and 16% in Odisha, but up 28% in Jharkhand and 20% in Kerala.
El Niño can hurt rice, oilseeds, pulses and cotton, but its effects vary by crop and irrigation coverage. CareEdge Ratings found that 13 of the 23 years since 1951-52 when farm GVA fell were El Niño years. The report also points to soil degradation, climate change and rising pest resistance as longer-term threats. Sugarcane is less exposed because 94% of its area is irrigated, compared with 33% for cotton.
The Indian Opinion
The lazy story is that El Niño alone will decide India’s farm fortunes. That ignores the uneven sowing recovery, large state-level differences and deeper problems such as weak irrigation, soil decline and pest resistance. The opposite claim, that better irrigation has made monsoon shocks harmless, is also too broad. Cotton remains exposed, while vulnerable states face sharper risks. The useful test is whether the monsoon deficit stays near the IMD’s 10% forecast and how final crop output compares with last year.
Source: livemint.com
This story was synthesised by AI from the source linked above.
