Monsoon deficit narrows to 9% but El Niño looms over agriculture

The Story in Brief

India's monsoon deficit has fallen to 9% of the long-term average, its lowest since June 5, thanks to an average first week of August that brought 63.1 mm of rain. July had already narrowed the deficit from 31% at the end of June to 16%, as kharif sowing caught up sharply. However, the all-India number hides wide regional variations: Karnataka has sown 28% less area than last year, while Bihar is up 10%. 49% of the country still faces deficient or large deficient rain this month, and 32% has excess or large excess, often falling on places ill-suited for it.

The El Niño phenomenon, expected to last into next year, remains a threat. Livemint reports that 13 of the 23 years since 1951-52 in which agricultural GVA declined were El Niño years. But the impact is muted overall as agriculture's share of GDP has shrunk to 17%. Structural problems such as climate change, rising pest resistance and soil degradation pose longer-term risks. Crops like cotton, with only 33% irrigated area, are far more vulnerable than sugarcane, which is 94% irrigated. States like Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are least resilient to a poor monsoon, according to a CareEdge report.